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Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32317/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-02T09:47Z (-12.53h, +13.64h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/07/29 13:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 03:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 8:10
POS Midpoint: 23:25Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.04
Travel Time: ~9.04 * 10:15 = 92:37

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-02T09:47Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/07/29 23:20Z
Lead Time: 65.42 hour(s)
Difference: -17.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-29T23:22Z
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